Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Fiscal Cliff & The Class Warfare



                We survived the Mayan ‘End of the World’ prophecy, but can we get over the ‘Fiscal Cliff’? At this moment Washington DC doesn’t sound too optimistic.
                Google ‘Fiscal Cliff’ and you will get over 826 million pages. Apparently, if Congress can't reach some sort of compromise, at the end of the year across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases will go into effect that will end the World as we know it. To fix the ever increasing debt and deficit, the President and many Democrats want higher taxes on the wealthy while the Republicans want to cut Entitlements, by which they mean Social Security and Medicare.
                I am definitely against increasing the taxes. What the Democrats and President are trying to do is create a Class Warfare. Why punish the successful people? After all the mantra of capitalism is to work hard in the confines of the law and earn according to your potential. Increasing the taxes on rich is simply going to discourage the entrepreneurs. Thanks to the loop holes and expert tax advisors,  while the top marginal tax rate on ordinary income is 35 percent, average rates that a household in the upper income bracket pays is much less. According to taxfoundation.org for 2010 top 1% paid an effective income tax rate of 23.3% - already double the national average!! Thanks to the K street lobbyists  of Democrats and President Obama, the world has started viewing this top 1% as the villains’ of our economic plights. On the contrary they are the ones who manage the economic and human capital much better than the government, keeping pace with the changing times and circumstances. Most, if not all have earned their way through hard work and perseverance.
                It’s the government and not capitalism that is driving the income inequality. By increasing the un-employment insurance it’s discouraging the unemployed to actively look for employment or to train for new skills. Let’s face it, the current unemployment is not seasonal, it’s structural. Most of the unemployed need to learn new skills to get back into the job market. What is government doing to train them? Not much. Instead of increasing their unemployment insurance for 2 years, they are better off being trained for a year and update their skill set. Teach them to fish rather than feeding them.
                The rhetoric about income inequality by the President Barack Obama and the Democratic members of the Congress has been nothing more than class warfare. What is it about the top 1% that the government and President believe is wrong? It is time for the government to provide an economic environment conducive for all income groups, including the top 1% and bottom 1%, by not picking winners and losers. If President is really concerned about the bottom 1% or 25%, instead of focusing all his political energy into Obama care, he should have invested those efforts into updating the decades old tax system. Introduce the Flat Rate Tax that will cure all the ills of class discrimination.
                Mr. President, Government is and never will be the answer to the economic plights in a capitalistic society. In today's divided political sphere, a lot more constructive debates are needed. Let us keep up the fight for liberty, America!

Friday, December 21, 2012

(Life) Rape in a Metro

Four days ago, a 23-year-old paramedic student was gang-raped. She and her male friend had gone to watch ‘The Life of Pi’ at a well-known cinema in an affluent part of the city. Then, they decided to take the bus ride home. Instead of waiting for a public bus, they boarded a private chartered bus. Over the next hour, six men raped the woman, beat her friend and then left them on the side of a freeway.
This horrific incident happened in the commercial hub of the capital city of the self-proclaimed next economic super power- New Delhi… and they say that Bihar is a lawless land.
I wanted to know more about that 23 year old paramedic student. But once I read the following statement by his doctor, I couldn’t gather the courage to read any further:
"It appears to be that a rod was inserted into her and it was pulled out with so much force that the act brought out her intestines along. That is probably the only thing that explains such severe damage to her intestines," he said.
She was abused so horrifically that her intestines had to be removed. If she survives, she will spend the rest of her life being fed intravenously. As far as those six culprits were concerned, after the incident they went back to their normal lives, as if nothing had happened. They didn’t even bother to hide. They had so much confidence in our police and judiciary that they knew nothing would happen. Interestingly they weren’t the spoiled brats of any politician or rich businessmen, no. All six, who committed this heinous crime, were lower middle class people. My point is- we were used to live in a society were rich and powerful were always above the law, but now even a regular sabziwala(vegetable vendor) & a bus driver, thinks that he can get away with the crime. Is this the society we are building for our children’s? Is this the future of a prosperous India?
                The men who think from between their legs and commit violent crimes should be punished severely. Capital punishment, although extreme, will be an easy escape for these culprits. An example has to be made out of them. But I know that nothing is going to change the rigid, out dated, bureaucratic Indian judiciary. Of course these individuals will be put behind bars, but should that be the end of this horrific incident? How many more victims does a nation need to take initiatives to start building a safer, better society for our women?
                The Mayan prophecy of the ‘End of the World’ did came true for that 23 year old paramedic student, for the world that she had known before boarding that bus on that fateful night is shattered and destroyed.

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Annual Shopping Pilgrimage

 
What was that? US Fiscal cliff, out of control National debt…what the heck, worries about the economy and fiscal austerity be damned. On Black Friday, consumers were ready to shop till they dropped…literally.
Hindus have Diwali, Christians have Christmas, Muslims have Ramadan, Jews have Chanukah and American Shoppers have Black Friday…the day after the Thanksgiving Thursday- a holiday when shoppers give thanks for bargain prices. It is the busiest shopping day of the year for the US retailers. (For my curious readers: Black in Black Friday indicates the point at which retailers begin to turn a profit or are ‘in the black’)
Just as a religious person will visit their holy land, the modern day consumer will make their annual pilgrimage to their sprawling and glittering neighborhood malls. Their annual pilgrimage begins soon after their Thanksgiving meals. They will very passionately and eagerly wait outside their temples of consumerism, which have different names- Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, Toys’ R Us just to name a few. They all serve the same purpose, to satisfy the hunger of a value hungry consumer.
                The parking lots become the most expensive real estate in the area. Cart & Cashiers, both of them are in abundance on any other day, but today they both are as scarce as plutonium. The temples of capitalism have taken full advantage of the consumer psyche. They provide what the consumer is looking for- ‘a deal’. Each and every soul who is waiting outside the mall in a freezing temperature is hoping to get his or her hand on a ‘once in a century deal’. Be it a 50 inch flat screen LED TV or an I-Phone/pod/pad or a Martha Stewart signature Bed in a bag or Paula Deen’s cooking set. The stores are full of hyper active consumers whose vision for that day is 20/20. There curious eyes always looking for the tags with the highest percentage off and also staring at their co-shoppers cart to figure out if they have missed anything. Cashiers, with no disrespect, are usually at the mercy of the consumers as consumers are always right. But today, is the day when the only people who are correct, are the cashiers. They can and will dictate the price, depending on the scanner of course. They are treated with the utmost respect, as they are the ones who will be approving the consumer’s catch(es) of the day. The priciest catch for today will be the empty shopping carts. No one will care if the wheels are squeaking or wobbly. The shoppers use the carts like knives to cut through the swarm of endless checkout lines and almost empty aisles.
                Having made almost six annual pilgrimages to the mecca of modern consumerism- the shopping malls, on the auspicious day of the Black Friday, one thing I have realized, at the end of the day it’s not about how much you saved, but how did you saved!!
Happy Thanksgiving and a Prosperous Black Friday.

Monday, November 5, 2012

21st century, the American century

 
One good thing that came out of Hurricane Sandy was I got some more time to think about some more things!!
                The reason I believe that the United States of America will survive the Great Recession is because I truly believe that America is a great country. I have always believed in the ‘America story’. But then why, precisely, is America so great?  And why will it still be a dominating force in the world?
                Freedom of speech, land of Opportunities, the Constitution and Equality are some of the popular answers to this question and I totally agree. But I wanted to be more real and precise. Hence, I came up with the following reasons:
·         Economically speaking, no country is as big as the United States of America. The second largest economy, China is a third of the size of the US economy. And given the current economic situation, the first spot on the economic ranking won’t change for quite some time.
·         I think more than the economic strength, it’s the military hegemony that will keep the U.S. as the most dominating force in the world. US spend almost $700B every year on defense and that total is more than the total spends of next 20 countries combine. Also, the largest and the most advanced defense companies are American.
·         Another major aspect which is often overlooked is its favorable geographic position. The huge arable land, best maritime transport system, oceans on east and west ends and politically and economically friendly countries on the north and south of the border.
·         US have a secret weapon to remain the most powerful country in the world; Code name- H1B. The H1B visas allow foreign workers in specialty occupations to work in the United States. The success of Silicon Valley is the prime example.
·         No country is as large and developed to even come close to challenge the US supremacy, both economically and militarily.
o   As long as Europe doesn’t speak one language it will never be a threat to American dominance. Plain and simple.  
o   China, I think will grow old before it becomes rich or gains military dominance. Thanks to its ‘one child’ policy and its ‘one party’ political system. One more thing to note here is that all of the prosperity of China is built on the willingness of the Americans and Europeans to buy its products.
                Time publisher, Henry Luce famously said, “20th century, the American century”. I whole heartedly believe, “21st century will be another American century”.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Let There Be Light...


This is it. The end of the world. The prophecy of Nostradamus has come true. The Armageddon has begun. The JJ Abrams show, “Revolution” (on NBC) has become a reality. The Mayan prediction of the end of the world has moved forward from December 21st, 2012 to October 29th.
The dark clouds have covered the sky. Winds have started to gain the momentum and are almost reaching the hurricane speed. Trees that withstood the test of Hurricane Irene have had enough and the roots have started to lose their strengths. The power lines are swinging like pendulum. The roads are getting deserted by each passing minute. The homes have lost power and more importantly we can’t watch TV. Well, we do have fully charged laptops, ipad’s and iPhone’s (well, who am I kidding, I am probably one of the few thousand who are still affiliated to the once prosperous, Scandinavian brand, Nokia) to survive for couple of hours, although without wi-fi and more importantly without Facebook, it’s going to be tough.
It’s been almost 2 hours, well so I thought. Habit prone, I looked at the cable box for time, alas, it was blacked out. I looked at my phone and it was only 15 minutes since we lost power. Life indeed comes to a standstill without power, both literally & figuratively. Literally being me and figuratively being Mr. Prime minister.
It’s been 2 hours for real now and I can’t take it anymore. I took Nyquil and passed out. The next morning was still dark. The leaves were off the branches. The black clouds were still overhead. The world was still quite and yes, the cable box was still not showing the time. I had it enough. I was almost on the verge of a nervous breakdown. To add salt to the wound, the overly advertised T-Mobile service was over and out. For some reason all my commercial brand affiliations are not so popular in the market today. Be it Nokia, T-mobile, HP, Long John Silver, Papa John’s or Adidas.
                I went to a friend’s place, which not-so-surprisingly was also without any power. Fortunately one of his outlets was working. So using our always alert, overly-leveraged, Desi(Indian)-minds, we plugged in the surge-protector and fed in all our battery-hungry e-devices. The GE 15 Watt (65W equivalent) Energy Smart Floodlight Dimmable R30 Light Bulb, never looked so bright and beautiful. We were all immersing in the golden light of the GE bulb that was lighting the one room that had power.
                And then I saw a glimmer of hope, literally. I saw one of the bedrooms light up, as if someone has said, “Let there be lights”. We all sprang up with joy- Yelling, praying, hugging, high-fiving, going berserk with joy. And as if the God of light, Apollo would have smiled, the blacked out cable box lite up again with the bright blue lights. More importantly it started showing the time again.
                Sorry Mayans, for now we have skipped the Armageddon. And our beautiful lives are back to normal, again.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The Master of Moments



“I will always make films on human relations, because it touches all walks of life and no two relationships are same”, so said the master, the storyteller, the filmmaker, the legend - Mr. Yash Chopra. The masterful storyteller, who made gems like SilSila, Chandni, Lamhe & DDLJ to name a few; The man who epitomized varied versions of human relations on the celluloid, made the viewer’s fall in love, all over again. 

He made human relations & situations a protagonist in his movies. Take the innocent love story of Kuwar Virendra Pratap Singh aka Kuwarji and Puja or the ever green love triangle between Amit, Shobha & Chandani. He was so good at reflecting the depth of human emotions on the silver screen, that his kind of cinema came to be known as Yash Chopra genre; a style to which each and every cine-goers will identify to.

For many of us who belong to either the Vijay generation or the Munna generation or the Rahul generation, Yash Raj films were binding us all. In the times of Dev D’s and Rathore’s and the new age Don’s, his was the genre that cut through the age, race, caste, creed, political and economic barrier. He was the one who brought back emotions or should I say, a little Indianess back to the Indian cinema.

The Yash Chopra story won’t be based on his life, but on his movies for that was his life…Jab Tak Hai Jaa!!

The Man, The Moments, The Movies—Yash Chopra.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

All Is Well...


Down But Not Out
After a long hiatus, I am back…
So, Is America doomed?
Are the world renowned financiers, economists, journalists, historians correctly predicting the end of the Superpower that has shouldered the world’s economy since the beginning of the last century?  Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Nouriel Roubini and countless other famed commentators (including my friends & colleagues), are they placing the right bet by shorting on the US economic future?
I for one don’t think so. US economy is hurt and a little down, but definitely not out. Let’s take it point by point:
Federal Spending
I definitely share their concern with regards to the debt burden and its unsustainability. But given the situation that we are in, I think this is the ‘only’ way out. I am not asking the federal government to expand the social welfare programs, NO. I only ask for investments in two sectors. I am hoping that the federal government’s spending goes towards infrastructure, which is much needed and with that you will have jobs for the people. Follow the lead of the most successful developed nation, Germany and invest in the workers training programs. Make them more efficient and educated so that they can face the ever changing world of technology. US can’t fight against the low cost labor, but they can always become more productive.
Austerity measures
I had said this in one of my blog’s last year. It’s about math. Consumer, Business & Government makes up the national GDP (for now don’t focus on EX-IM).  We are very well aware that Consumers and Businesses are going through a rough patch since last four years and it seems that the status quo will remain for couple more years. So, now if you ‘still’ want to grow, who do you think will have to take the lead? Right, the Government. Of course financing the future with Debt is not a prudent move, but as long as the world trust’s the all might dollar and falls heads over heals to buy the Treasuries, you do not need to worry. US have about $15 Trillion of debt (almost as much as GDP) and still the yields on Treasuries are at a historic low. Why? Because US is the best place in the worst neighborhood. UK had taken strict austerity measures couple of years back and look where it is now. It’s still teetering at 0 to 0.5% growth, add to it the increasing unemployment and a whole lot of other domestic issues.
China syndrome
Enough with the China scares. China needs us more than the other way round. China needs to keep Yuan undervalued, to keep the manufacturing sector running which in turn keeps the domestic population employed. 20 million Chinese move to the cities every year. They need to be employed. China’s economy unlike US is not based on consumers, but on exports to the ‘rich’ countries like US, EU & Japan. If they don’t keep their currencies undervalued, the trade favorability will increase the value of Yuan, which won’t be good for the manufacturing sector, which will lead to job cuts, which will lead to innumerable social and domestic issues for the Communist party.
The world might not like US government printing more Dollars, but they don’t have any other alternative. And this is what US should take the advantage of. Issue debt but make sure it’s ‘invested’ for the future.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Gujarati-American



So, this Labor Day weekend I attended the World Gujarati Conference in New Jersey. This Biennial 3 day event brings Gujarat to America. Not that we don’t have Gujaratism during the other 727 days, but this 3 days feels like we are ‘in’ the heartland of Gujarat.

Gujarat, Gujarati, Gujaratism…From the auto-rickshaws to the recreation of pols (small streets in old city areas), from stalls selling street foods to the hustle and bustle of Gujaratis bargaining for Chania choli, from the Ras Garbas to the Dayro’s, from Ubhi chavi, Aadi chaavi (crosswords) to the kakko Barakhadi (Gujarati alphabets). It was all there. And of course there were Gujarati celebrities, including astronaut Sunita Williams from International Space Station thru a live feed from NASA. Gujarat was in the air, here on planet Earth and in Space.

During one of the speeches (there weren’t a lot of them!!) I started thinking about my roots in Gujarat and my present in America.

Gujarat showed me how to create an opportunity, no matter how bad a situation may be.
America gave me the hope and promise.

My Gujarati parents and culture guided me to believe in myself and dare to dream.

America gave me the opportunities to make those dreams turn into reality.

Gujaratism taught me how to create my own identity with hard work and perseverance.

America taught me to be Proud and to standup for what I believe in and fight for it.

If we think about it, Gujarat and America are not that different, both believe in the power of people, freedom of speech, comingling of cultures, respecting history and creating future. They both strive to provide Equal opportunities for all, but don’t guarantee equal outcomes. This is what great societies and economies are built upon. To be there for needy ones and let the able ones operate on their ability. This is how a true market economy and great cultural societies can co-exist and create bright future for all its citizenries.  

I always thought myself as a proud Indian-American, but watching the shows and the history of the creation of a great state and the progress that it has made, for this three days, I felt more proud to be a Guajarati-American than and an Indian-American…  

Jai Jai Garvi Gujarati

Thursday, August 9, 2012

India - Comingling of Contrasts

…and so here we are, India’s 66th Independence Day.
No different than previous year and the year before and then the year before. More of the same: Out of control inflation, Increasing IPL popularity, Record breaking corruption scandals, Blockbuster Masala Bollywood movies, below par economic growth, emerging of one more ‘public leader’, ever increasing social issues. But no matter what, Indians will always find a way to smile and survive another day.

We Indians are like water, no matter how much the external environment changes, we always find a way to compromise. We strive to live our lives adjusting to the boundaries that we are confined to- Political boundaries, social boundaries, economic boundaries, cultural boundaries.

Not all is as bad as it sounds or looks. After all I am an Indian (and an American!!) and I always find the glass half full.

We have the highly educated and the best human being as our Prime minister,
But he is handicap by the corrupt political system.

Our IT industry is growing at a double digit growth rate, with over $100B in revenues,
But the economic bureaucracy and babuism is limiting there even higher growth potential.

Gujarat has become a symbol of political pluralism and economic capitalism,
But political party lines and muddled national political scene makes it harder for a few remaining political reformers to follow its example.

Indian cricket has become a global phenomenon thanks to IPL, (and BCCI!!)
But since cricket is hogging all the spot light and eyeballs, other sports are paying the price. No wonder our participation in Olympics is limited to 2-3 medals.

India’s film industry has spread India’s cultural reach to all the corners of the world,
But…can’t think of any ‘but’. Adore Indian movies…Bole to Ekdam Jhakaas!!

India is the largest democracy in the world,
But is it a ‘working’ democracy?

India’s most famous son, Mahatma Gandhi gave the world the gift of Nonviolence,
But over 30% of today’s ‘elected’ leaders have criminal cases registered against them.

India grew at a compounded rate of 6% since economic liberalization of 1991, to become the 10th largest economy in the world,
But our per capita income is less than $1,500 and the poverty rate is still around 25%.

India telecom sector is the third largest in the world with over 900 million mobile users,
But are we connected with our fellow Indians from North-East?
(I bet most of us won’t be able to name the NE statesL)

We are building the world’s tallest residential building,
But also house the largest slums.

I guess this is the beauty of India, Comingling of Contrasts.

This is how our DNA’s are designed. We laugh at any opportunity we get for they are few and far in-between. We earn, we save and spend from what little remains. We take pride in every little thing for we have worked hard for it. Government for us is not a means of convenience, but a mode of disturbance. We accept that we do live in a caste system, but that is what makes our culture more vibrant and colorful.

Somehow we came this far and I am sure we will eventually see a better ‘tomorrow’. Or should I say a day will come when we all will talk about ‘today’ and for once not think about ‘tomorrow’.
Till then, for the better tomorrow…

Happy Birthday, India!!




Sunday, July 22, 2012

The Underdog Saga

We all love a great ‘underdog’ story. I think it’s the human spirit of ‘believing’ and putting our ‘hearts’ to work that makes us all fall in love with the underdog saga. Be it the ‘Miracle Team’- The US Ice Hockey Olympic team of 1980 or ’Seabiscuit’ – The crooked leg, lazy horse who won the hearts of the Depression era Americans or the ‘World Champion’ Indian Cricket team of 1983, who defeated the mighty West Indians or the IPAC Garba team of America that went on to win the 2012 North American Garba competition by beating the crowd favorite and the previous champion, the Detroit team on their homes grounds.
Wait a minute, IPAC Garba team? That’s right, New Jersey based Indian Performing Art center. The brainchild of Mrs. Smita (Miki) Patel, The Garba team of IPAC was made up of hard working mothers, wives and professionals. The seeds of 2012 IPAC team were sown just 8 weeks back in May. Most of the team members were meeting for the first time. The road to the prestigious, FOGANA Garba competition was long and rough in terms of learning curve and competition. All the weekends leading up to the July 21st competition comprised of 8 hour long daily practices. Husbands and children might have faced some difficult times in the absence of the women of the house; in fact it is during these times that we know how much of our lives are dependent on their presence.
For IPAC, the 600 mile journey to Detroit, the venue for the 2012 competition started at 4:30am from Edison, NJ. Three proud husbands were fortunate enough to join their future champions on this historic journey. The bus ride was a little tiring, especially for the competitors as they had their practice scheduled within an hour of reaching the destination. Thanks to our driver, Mr. Howard, we reached on time. The hard part was to be separated from our dear wives and spent the night in separate roomsJ, but knowing what was at stake, I think it was all worth it. IPAC team had their scheduled practice session and according to Miki Aunty everything seemed to be fine. The only glitch in the whole process was that there was no scheduled practice session on the performing stage, which would have helped the participants to draw a dimensional map of the stage in their minds. But little did I know the IPAC team was not playing with their minds but with their hearts. And when you believe in yourselves and your team, you don’t worry about these petty things.
The morning of the competition was hectic and busy as expected. Thanks to IPAC team manager Mr. Praful Patel, all the competitors were ready to compete on time. With their traditional dresses on they were looking angels. The competition started at 12pm at the Ford Performing Arts Center and IPAC team was scheduled to perform at 4pm. There were 27 competitors and IPAC was #23. I (Mr. Jeenal Shah), Nishil (Mr. Aripta Parikh), Lalubhai (Mr. Vaishali Parikh), Mr. Praful Patel and other IPAC supporters were sitting on the balcony holding their breaths and repeating “All Izzz Welll”. On the surface we 3 idiots were excited and just happy that our better halves were a part of a great team and ‘participating’ in famous competition. Winning the whole thing never crossed our minds. In fact we were just hoping that they finish their performance without creating any ‘scenes’ (Apologies to all the IPAC veterans, nothing against you, we were just thinking about our wives!!...apologies to our wives as well!!). Right before team IPAC’s performance I started panicking and saw the same scare on Nishil and Lalubhai faces. We started prepping our cameras to capture each and every moment. Our hands were shaking but I saw Jeenal and Arpita dancing in the back room, on the tunes of the team that was performing. I was thinking this is great it means that they are NOT nervous.
And then the announcement was made, New Jersey’s IPAC group is going to perform on “Piyu Maro”. The lights went off and the curtain started to rise. Then the music started. Lalubhai started his camera, Nishil started his camera. I started my camera. And I bet we all were saying ‘Sri Krishna Sarnam Mama’ at the same time. The entry went superb. All the steps were coming in sync. The circles formation went fine. No one dropped anything. The last time I remember, 5 minutes and 45 seconds passing that quickly was during my 12th science Biology exams. The performance was breathtaking, mind-blowing, Aflatoon,  Bole to Ekdam Jhakaas!!!. Well, not so Jhakaas, at least according to some participants. Since we were sitting on the corner, we didn’t realize that the circle formation was not in the center and they also ‘messed up’ some of the steps. Arpita broke down, Jeenal was feeling low, Vaishali bhabhi was nervous and then everyone started to doubt themselves. I was just happy that they ‘completed’ there garba.
So now the long wait started for the announcements. There were 5 competitors in there group. We were hoping that IPAC will get #2. Third price was announced and it was not IPAC. We were all excited. This means that we were definitely getting the second prize. Hip Hip Horray!! Jai Ho!!...’and the second prize goes to…’ I don’t remember the name, because it was not IPAC. I thought that, yes it means that we won the whole thing, because at that moment I started hallucinating, thinking that there were only 3 competitors and if IPAC didn’t win 3rd or 2nd then they are the definite 1st place winner. Lalubhai corrected me, saying that there are 5 and we are done. The feeling was mutual downstairs were all the IPAC team members were eagerly standing, waiting to be called upon. Miki aunty told some of them to start walking as the IPAC’s 2012 journey had ended. Well, not so early Miki aunty, because destiny had something else written for you and Team IPAC. The announcer goes, “and the prize for the 1st place for the 2012 FOGANA Garba competition goes to New Jersey…blah blah blah…” We started shouting, yelling “Piyu, Piyu, Piyu”. Stage was flooded with the IPAC team members. Nishil ran downstairs to share their excitement. Lalubhai and I were high fiving and yelling. We all went downstairs and congratulated the new garba champs of 2012. We were just building the excitement as the party had just started. It continued in our hotel rooms and later in the bus. None of the IPAC souls were complaining about the pains or cramps for they were energized by holding the trophy.  
Now I, Nishil, lalubhai and all the husbands of the 2012 Team IPAC can proudly say that they and Dr. Sriram Nene have one thing in common. Our wives are champion dancers.
Thank you Miki aunty, Praful uncle and all the participants for giving us such a wonderful time. Of course the trophy is important, but the moments of playing Antakshari, taking Tequila shots, Eating 7 layer burrito in the middle of the night in a bus, listening to Praful uncle’s funny ‘one liners’, Kalpana aunty’s, sorry, Kalpanaben’s made up songs and the innumerable laughing moments that we had, will be cherished for a long long time to come.
Jai Ho Team IPAC, for you have added one more chapter in the book of ‘Underdog Winners’.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Takes Two To Tango

US & German Bald Eagles flying high...Thank You, 'Euro crisis'

I think Western political elites; especially the European Union (EU) leaders are taking a lesson or two from there Indian counterparts. Don’t solve the problem, treat them just enough, so to keep the citizenry quite. For, problems are the job security of our leaders. Treat them in such a fashion that they become recurring- Kick the can down the road
This is what European leaders are doing. No strong actions are taken to solve the current Euro crisis which is entering its third year. EU’s leadership is so much focused on the short term solutions that daily FTSE, DAX & CAC indices have become there focal point. Bond yields on Spanish & Greek securities have become the talking point for all and sundry, but after 20 EU leaders meetings there is no resolution in sight. The only policy European Monetary Union (EMU) was able to frame was setting up the 7% benchmark. Any government whose security crossed the 7% yield becomes eligible for the IMF/EMU support (‘Bailout’ has become a ‘Financially Incorrect’ term to use). It happened with Ireland, with Greece and with Spain to some extent. The funny part is it’s not an ‘official’ policy.
In the free capitalist world, someone’s Loss is almost always someone’s Gain. Euro crisis is no different. Two economies are gaining tremendously from the current euro crisis- The United States & the Deutsch Land.
US have its own macroeconomic issues. Unemployment is at almost 9% (shadow unemployment ~15%), GDP is growing at a meagerly rate of 1.5-2%, Housing market is still in shambles, Federal Reserve is almost out of ammo. The current drought is putting a stress on the inflation (CPI) and to add salt to the wound, Debt (& Deficit) is growing each and every passing day. But to everyone’s surprise Treasury yield are at historic low. In fact the yield on 6 month bills went into the ‘Negative’ territory. The only decent reason I have is that US is the Best House in the Worst neighborhood. Where else will the investor go; can’t go to Europe, Japan is forbidden since 90’s, China has not opened up its markets and Australia and Canada are not big enough. So the ‘only’ alternative is the US Treasury market. It’s not the Economic reason but the Political reason that’s attracting investors to the US. As they say sometimes, you have to be worried about the Return OF Principle then the Return ON Principle.
Germany, is gaining tremendously from its neighbors trouble. The current crisis has made Angela Merkel a very shrewd leader. She knows that the depressed Euro is good for Germany’s exports. Germany is the world’s fourth largest economy ($3.5 Trillion) and Export makes up 30% of its GDP. Of course it’s in Germany’s favor to keep her neighbors afloat but in the capitalist society there is no harm when you Gain from someone Pain.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Se Habla Espanol

It’s 7am, and the lines have started forming in front of the government unemployment office- Two hours before the doors open. The scene is same at the city’s food banks and churches. No, this scene is not from a sub-Saharan city, but from Madrid, Spain. Spain has become the poster child of the boom to gloom. By the end of today, Spain’s 10 year bonds were going for a record 7% yield.
Not too long ago, Spain was the epitome of economic liberalization. Thanks to the ‘92 Barcelona Olympics, world became familiar with Spanish cuisines, warm weather, beaches, football leagues and of course its cinema (Penelope Cruze, anyone!!).  Spain was the prosperous "Iberian Tiger” the biggest creator of jobs among the Euro nations. The adoption of the single European currency in 1999 pushed Spain into the elite league of successful nations. It became ‘developed’. It was on the same level playing field as its much bigger and economically better counterpart, Germany. Spain's financial system came to resemble the Germans' — using the same currency, enjoying the same low interest rates and opening investment opportunities.
Spain’s economic revolution was based on ‘Sun and Bricks’. The warm weather attracted wealthy Scandinavians and northern Europeans. And thanks to the liberal economic policies, miles of pristine beaches were opened up for construction. What followed was a housing boom that makes the US boom meager. English, Germans and Scandinavians flocked the Spanish beaches. They demanded beach front villas and boy did Spaniards provide them. In 2005/06 Spain started to build more homes then UK, France, Italy and Germany combine. 5 million new jobs were created since the inception of Euro. The nation that uses to have over 20-25% unemployment saw it’s out of work population decrease to 10-11%.
And then came the economic crisis of 2008. Northern Europeans started to withdraw their money from Spain. English were not able to make the payments on their beach front properties. Spaniards who owned 2-3 homes started getting laid off. Money started drying out of the system. Greece’s problem didn’t help either. Investor started to realize that after all Spain, just like Greece, is the ‘Club-Med’ peripheral European nations that didn’t had anything else except warm weather and beaches to offer to the world.
The reality has settled in. Spain’s economy shrunk last year, unemployment is crippling back at 20%, banks have gone bankrupt, Spaniards have started withdrawing money from the Spanish Banks and are moving it to Germany and France. Spanish youths who had moved out of their parents homes, returned back. In Spain they're called the "ni ni” (“nor nor”) generation — they have neither money, nor homes, nor careers. Reflecting the reality of bad times, Real Madrid and Barcelona both lost in the UEFA champion’s league.

Monday, June 18, 2012

In Search Of A Hero



India and Indians are always in ‘corruption state of mind’.
            If we are not involved in corruption, we are agitating against corruption or updating our Facebook status with statement against corruption or some pathetic souls like me who pretend to be a blogger, blog about it. Whichever way or form it may be, we Indians are always fascinated about Corruption.

It’s funny the whole nation is professedly against the notion of corruption and has always been, but the business of corruption always manages to flourish!! In fact if you think about it, corruption could be the largest service sector industry in India.
            Indians by nature have always been ‘Hopeful of their Future and Emotional by Nature’. The two ingredients that politicians have always taken advantage of. It’s true that people are fed-up of corruption, especially by the political elites, and it is also true that we always try to find a ‘hero’ to fight all our ills, corruption included. I guess we are still hung-over from the Gandhi, Nehru and Patel era.  Hence, we always rally behind a person who wants to fight for the Aam Admi (common man), against the ‘system’. We put all our hopes behind his/her efforts and start looking for the glimpse of our great freedom fighters in their shadows. Alas, it only lasts for a few passionate weeks, in some cases months and then life makes a full circle and back to basics.

The Aaj Tak generation, which is always eager for the last minute news and a little tadka (gravy)will flood the social media scene with their heart-touching, national building, and heroic comments. Pictures are posted, ‘likes’ are requested for quotes, pictures and news. Candle light vigils, Signature collection efforts and Rallies are organized. Normal life is disrupted. Depending on the crowd, opposition leaders will get involve; religious leaders will link religious demons to corruption and will cash out on the raining popularity currency.
           And then the harsh reality of corruption and politics settles in and takes control of the situation and as always, life moves on. Hope starts to build again and the waiting game to find a new ‘hero’ begins… 

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Iron Lady of Europa


The deepening banking crisis in Spain, weak Irish and Portugal economies and a pivotal June 17 Greek election that could make or break the nation's ties with the euro zone; all this point to the increasing possibility of a Euro break up. Although, the existence of the euro looks bleaker each passing day, I still feel that Euro will survive. And one of the reasons behind my belief is Germany’s financial and political risk attached to the failed Euro.
According to the latest Deutsche Bundesbank report, Germany’s GDP grew at a comparatively strong rate of 0.5% and its unemployment is the lowest since last 20 years. This is when the whole European neighborhood is trying to survive each day. With over $1.4T (trillion) worth of goods and services exported, Germany remained the world’s second largest exporter behind China (but of course). And this is possible because of a ‘weak’ euro.
Thanks to the Euro zone crisis, euro has lost its value which has made Germany's export cheaper and therefore competitive. The demand of the German Bunds is so high that the yields have touched an all-time low for the most of Bundebank’s offerings. If Germany had Deutsch Marc, it would have been so much over valued because of the Euro crisis that there was no way Germany would have achieved the high level of exports, which in turn would have increased the unemployment rate and depressed the overall economy.
Since the beginning of the Euro crisis (2009/10), European leaders have scheduled almost a dozen ‘emergency talks’. The result of the last round of emergency talks was a ‘strict limit’ on the budgets of the 17 Euro using countries. Any country that broke the rules would suffer automatic penalties. Interesting thing about this meeting was not the actual outcome, but acceptance of majority of German demands.
Although there are some doubts with regards to the policies of ECB, EU and individual Euro states, one thing is very clear Germany has taken the driver’s seat in Europe (to France’s dislike!!). Surprisingly, for the first time in 60 years, Germany is the clear leader in Europe.
Till now the Iron lady of Europe- Chancellor Angela Merkel, is just doing enough so that the peripheral countries will survive, but if it came to the existence of Euro, I am sure she will go all out to save the Euro because it will be in Germany’s financial and political interest.
The Great War of Europe just ended, and Germany has won.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Experiments with Lies

What started as an innocent prank in childhood days turned out to be socially & morally hated trait…Lying. I am sure most of us have mastered the art of lying and there shouldn’t be any shame in accepting that truth because to err is human.
From the day we are born, we are told not to tell a lie, never support a liar, truth is the virtue of a good human being, etc etc. Our psyche is filled with these words, even before we know what the difference between a lie and a truth is? Mahatma Gandhi is our model for truth until we’re much older and start testing the boundaries of truth & lies.
An economist lies in every child’s heart. They start valuing the return on risk. The risk of naïve excuses, in mature term- lies. As a child we start giving excuses to play a little longer, spend time with friends after school, stay out of trouble or to avoid hurting someone’s feelings. In short, to get out of doing what we don’t want to do, we take the route of naïve excuses, the little white-lies or should I say Good lies, since nobody is hurt. Well physically at least. I came across a great word, Fabulist- A person who lies or invents. It has so much more panache than liar, don’t you think?
Of course I want everyone, including Ashvy to speak the truth. Our dearest and mischievous of all the God’s, Lord Krishna has been documented as a serial liar, of course for the good of others. We all have (and still do) experimented with lies and most of us turned out to be good human beings. (I dare not point out anyone, I say ‘most’ because I never generalize a statement by saying ‘all’) But where does the naïve excuses end and fabulist begin?

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Bandh- The (Civil Disobedience) Political Protest

                    Bandh- The Civil Disobedience  Political Protest

            
I remember growing up in India, me and my friends use to enjoy the ‘bandhs’ (closing) since the schools were off and it was a full-on fun day. Never knew what it meant, except that we always wanted more of it. I also remember participating in one of the bandh rallies holding the placard, didn’t knew what it said though.
Bandh, is a powerful means of civil disobedience. Alas, the ‘civil’ part of the bandh got lost somewhere in recent times. It has become a political tool. It’s funny how the rule of law works in India, because it is unlawful to organize bandhs in India based on the 1998 Supreme Court verdict and elected leaders are opening flouting the law. Well, that’s India’s judicial system- it’s for the aam admi not for the people with power. Everything else aside just think about the economic impact, think about all the day laborers who loose there daily earning because of the break-down in the normal life.
Personally speaking, I think the bandhs are a way of showing the political strength of a leader. The more successful the bandh, the more they can demand from their counterparts when the time comes to jump the ship during the political turmoil. And I am sure an average educated Indian thinks the same way; hence the Bharat bandh from yesterday wasn’t as successful (if ever there was a way to measure it).
The bharat bandh called upon by the opposing parties on May 31st, was because of governing Congress party’s decision to hike the petrol prices by 10%. BJP, Janta Dal, Shiv Sena and other parties were ‘upset’ because they felt for the aam admi. Well, that’s ironic because not too long ago, the BJP/Shiv Sena led government in Maharastra, increased the bus fares of BEST by 40-50%- The life line of over 4 million Mumbaikars.
Bandhs are nothing but an ‘official’ way of destroying public and private properties. It’s an open secret that political parties hire goons and other activities to become a part of the bandhs to make it ‘successful’ because an an aam admi and his family are indoors, off street, off work, off school waiting for the next ‘normal’ day to go back to living life, again.