Thursday, May 31, 2012

Bandh- The (Civil Disobedience) Political Protest

                    Bandh- The Civil Disobedience  Political Protest

            
I remember growing up in India, me and my friends use to enjoy the ‘bandhs’ (closing) since the schools were off and it was a full-on fun day. Never knew what it meant, except that we always wanted more of it. I also remember participating in one of the bandh rallies holding the placard, didn’t knew what it said though.
Bandh, is a powerful means of civil disobedience. Alas, the ‘civil’ part of the bandh got lost somewhere in recent times. It has become a political tool. It’s funny how the rule of law works in India, because it is unlawful to organize bandhs in India based on the 1998 Supreme Court verdict and elected leaders are opening flouting the law. Well, that’s India’s judicial system- it’s for the aam admi not for the people with power. Everything else aside just think about the economic impact, think about all the day laborers who loose there daily earning because of the break-down in the normal life.
Personally speaking, I think the bandhs are a way of showing the political strength of a leader. The more successful the bandh, the more they can demand from their counterparts when the time comes to jump the ship during the political turmoil. And I am sure an average educated Indian thinks the same way; hence the Bharat bandh from yesterday wasn’t as successful (if ever there was a way to measure it).
The bharat bandh called upon by the opposing parties on May 31st, was because of governing Congress party’s decision to hike the petrol prices by 10%. BJP, Janta Dal, Shiv Sena and other parties were ‘upset’ because they felt for the aam admi. Well, that’s ironic because not too long ago, the BJP/Shiv Sena led government in Maharastra, increased the bus fares of BEST by 40-50%- The life line of over 4 million Mumbaikars.
Bandhs are nothing but an ‘official’ way of destroying public and private properties. It’s an open secret that political parties hire goons and other activities to become a part of the bandhs to make it ‘successful’ because an an aam admi and his family are indoors, off street, off work, off school waiting for the next ‘normal’ day to go back to living life, again.
                              

Thursday, May 24, 2012

The sacred cow- Oil subsidies




Usually the front page news of Times of India is always about Indian film industry or cricket or some wardrobe malfunction of an actress. But since yesterday fuel price increase has captured most of the headlines. I realized that this is going to be the hot topic on Facebook as well. Friends and families in India started blaming the government and its corrupt policies. Although, I do agree with people’s outrage, economist in me told me that this is the right macro-economic step for a nation that is buried under subsidies.

 One of the tragedies of democratic politics is that when the politicians try to do the right thing that makes sense in macro-economic terms that decision might not always flow through the general public as a logical one.  Thanks to their shady past and prior corrupt and not-so-smart public policies. We are all aware of their strong “what’s in it for me” mentality. Hence, the current decision by the UPA government to increase the prices of petrol in India by 10% (Rs7.50) might come out as another blunder by the corrupt government.

Economically speaking, given the fiscal deficit that India is facing (and growing by the day) there needed to be some action taken on the amount of subsidies government is spending on the fuel. India imports 73% of its fuel needs, in other words out of 3.3 million barrel of daily consumption, India imports 2.2 million. In 2011 India imported $95B worth of petroleum products and exported $30B, a net deficit of $65B. India is facing a subsidy bill of $40B (Rs174,000 crore) for 2011. That’s almost 2% of India’s GDP, in subsidies alone. So, it does make sense for the government to bring the oil prices in level with the global crude oil prices. After all we do live in the globalized world.

But can we really think in pure vanilla-economic terms when we are talking about public policy in India? No...if we were thinking economically, so to speak, why not then reduce the defense spending which is touching 5% of the GDP and diverts some cash to this sector. Heck, bring corruption in control and India will save around 10% of its GDP, conservatively speaking. I know that’s not going to happen, so let’s think some logical steps, why not privatize the oil sector? It’s not like government babus are doing any good running the companies, plus look at the successes of the telecom sector and the airline sector (lately it’s been facing some issues, but it’s only because of their debt exposure).

I do believe that India needs to get rid of its subsidy burden (plus, subsidies breeds corruption), but not at the expense of the aam admi. Government should focus on other areas to save money and focus on the subsidies when global crude oil prices are lower.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Up In The Air

So, it’s still up in the air…
I highly doubt that something would come out of the G8 meeting, well G7 actually since Vladimir Putin was too busy to attend. As such it’s my belief that organizations like G8, G20, G2, G3, APEC, ASEAN and others only function when the times are good. In bad times, just like the present one, everyone is for themselves. Welcome to the G-Zero world. Ian Bremmer of Eurasia group coined the term G-Zero, where in the influence of US in the foreign policy will decline thanks to its internal issues of unemployment and fragile economy and the developing nations are not rich or mature enough to take the added responsibility of maintaining the world order. Not that I like the unipolar world lead by any one country but given the two choices I will definitely want US to lead the political and economic world. Only because US is a mature democracy and secondly, I think world leaders, both elected and selected, behave when big daddy is in the room.
Coming to the current issue on hand, even after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement before the G8 summit on Greece, I still believe that Greece will always be a part of Euro; it might declare bankruptcy but will remain part of Euro. No, I can’t provide any guarantee for my statement. The first lesson I learned in my ‘Intro to International Relations’ class was There is no Morality or Surety in Polity. The only reason Greece has still survived is not because of any love from IMF or EU but because even if Greece goes bankrupt they will still be on the hook for billions of euros. Not to mention the diplomatic loss of breaking up the Eurozone. On Greece’s part, as I had suggested before, they should start taking advantage of what they already have and leverage off it. One is Greek yogurt and the second is the fabulous weather. I know yogurt idea sounds funny, but it can help a nation emerge from the deep crisis (I sent an email to Fareed Zakaria about this idea…no reply yet!!). Greece should also take advantage of the warm weather and launch tourism on a massive scale.
Plato’s republic of 10.5 million earns around $27,000 per year. I am sure if they all come together they can pay off the debt of $250B within this decade and draw a new future for the next generation.
Amen to that

Friday, May 18, 2012

Kahaani Indian Soap Opera Ki


Most of my blogs come out of my eagerness to know something more about a topic; I can’t say the same for today’s topic. In fact, I loathe it…that’s right; I am talking about the Indian Soap operas (I see a big smile on my co-(Indian soap) haters faces)
India got the first taste of soaps in mid-80 when Hum Log (We People) was first broadcasted on Doordarshan, the government sponsored only Indian channel at that time. The idea of the soap came to then Information and Broadcasting Minister, Vasant Sathe, after a Mexican trip in 1982. Hum Log had 154 episodes and was a huge hit. Fast forward to 2000 and a lady named Ekta Kapoor aka the Queen of Indian television launched, Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi, which literally means Because the Mother-in-Law Was Once the Daughter-in-Law. It was the beginning of the era of the neo-Indian soap opera, in other words, the newer and stupider (I don’t think it’s a word, but who cares) version of the 80’s soap opera. To say they are slow and long and boring and irritating and nonsensical and nightmarish would be an understatement. Heck, I think it’s a cure for insomnia. Whenever it’s on, I do the impossible… I hate my TV, can you imagine (sorry buddy, except for the Indian soap bull crap, you know you are my ‘only friend’!!)
Don’t get me wrong, there are some programs which I don’t like, but Indian Soaps, they make me angry. I always tell Jeenal, you don’t need to watch it every day, you watch one episode a month and you will catch up the next month because they are so freaking slow. I tried, but to no avail. To Ekta and her fellow producer’s credit they were able to garner a huge chunk of the mass market. The dedicated followers are in millions (one of them being my wife). The funny thing is not a single soap on any channel has ever had a proper ‘ending’. Either it had to be pulled off or one of the lead characters had a dispute with the producers or producers had a fight with the channels. But as they say, the show must go on and the stupid Indian soap does goes on, literally…
Personally I feel that Indian Soaps are a conspiracy by the secretive Indian Wives society against their husband’s habits of watching ‘informative’ shows like News, Films, Cricket and Football. I think it’s time for us husbands to get together and fight back…Ha! Who am I kidding? For some dreams never see the light of reality.  
May Peace and TV Remote be with us…?

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Whats Up, Europe?



It seems that European Union’s list of trouble just got a little longer…
First it was the socialist leader of France, Francois Hollande’s who won the Presidential elections by slamming EU’s austerity fix for the debt crisis. The freshly-elected president said his victory marked “a new departure for Europe and hope for the world” because it showed “austerity can no longer be the only option.”
As France’s unemployment hits its highest level since the inception of the 5th republic, Hollande has called to rewrite a recently inked and long-negotiated EU fiscal pact to enforce budgetary discipline. This is causing jitters on both the global financial markets and on EU chancellor, I mean…German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.
And then it was the usual suspect, Greece in the troubled waters…again
Only weeks out of the woods (thanks to the troika of IMF, EU & ECB) after forcing creditors to take a massive hit on their bond holdings, the political turmoil in Athens threatens to sink its latest bailout and drive the insolvent country closer to a messy debt default and possibly an exit from the euro zone. As talks to form the next Greek government fails, there are doubts that Athens might not follow up on its promised austerity measures worth E 14.5B next month. An analyst on Bloomberg came up with a suggestion to fix the Greek crisis. She said Germany should provide each of its citizens with a Greece club-med vacation voucher, so that they can go to Greece and spend quality time & money to boost up the Greek economy. On the other hand, EMU should provide Greek citizen’s voucher to visit Germany to witness how Germans pay their taxes!!
The Pain in Spain is growing day by day. On Monday, it was official, Spain was in recession and to add salt to the wound, S&P downgraded all of Spain’s largest banks. The austerity measures that the government plan to take is not going to help the 25% unemployed Spaniards. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has said that come Friday, his government will come out with a reform package that will solve lot of Spain’s economic woes. Amen to that, because if markets are concerned about Greece (2011 GDP $300B), Spain’s economy ($1.4T) is 5 times larger!
And if Spain fails then Mario Monti’s Italy is going to be the next Domino to fall…   

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas - Gujarat


So recently I came across an article by the noted economic blogger Soutik Biswas on Gujarat.
He stated that based on the 7 year period from 2004-05 thru 2011-12 Gujarat clocked an annual growth rate of 10.08 %( Gross State Domestic Product). If Gujarat were a country this would be one of the fastest growth rate in the world, undoubtedly faster than China but even faster than the new frontier nations like, Mongolia and Ghana. This even prompted The Economist magazine to call it India's Guangdong.
Hailing from the great state of Gujarat, I didn’t need any statistics to prove the growth of Gujarat, but numbers like this does help to prove your argument, if there were any. A lot has been said about the real reasons of the phenomenal growth of Gujarat. It’s entrepreneurial community, its educated population; its conservative values (believe it or not!), its ties to the successful business families. But the most important thing that helped Gujarat achieve this success is because of its government’s socio-economic policies that are both, business and aam aadmi friendly. Its clear vision, its acceptance to become a part of a much bigger & a better world, its philosophy of better economic life translates into a better social life, has earned the state a lot of kudos both nationally and internationally. And this is all because of one person, the person who hopefully, will be our next Prime Minister*, Mr. Narendra Modi- the no-nonsense economic reformer. This is no political propaganda and I have no allegiance to any political party. I believe in Mahatma Gandhi’s philosophy of electing the ‘person’ and not the ‘party’. And being a witness to the longest and the strongest socio-economic growth an Indian state would have ever witnessed, I wanted to write about it and the reason behind it. Even Time magazine put him on the cover recently, "Modi Means Business".
Some might question his policies during the troubled times of 2002 when Gujarat went through its worst social crisis, but his economic policies never left a shred of doubt. His vision of making Gujarat a model state was very clear. I don’t need to provide the list of things that Gujarat has achieved in its recent past, I am sure we all have witnessed it either personally or through media.
2002 has been a distant past. Gujarat has achieved a lot in this past decade in both economic front and social front. Socio-economic & educational level of Gujarati’s in both Muslims and Hindus are better than their counterparts in the rest of India. Not that everything is hunky dory, like any other state Gujarat has its issues with female foeticide and environment, but steps are being taken and it is moving in the right direction.
Jai Jai Garvi Gujarat!!

*I can’t wait to see how will the sitting US President entice Prime Minister Modi to come to US, given he was not granted visa after 2002.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Spare a thought for Mr. Prime Minister



You know, when I face a dilemma or get a little depressed (thanks to Dow Jones Industrial) I think about my beloved Prime minister. That thought will cheer me up right away, because compare to his situation, I am relaxing in my balcony, having a black coffee on a river cruise in Germany!! I mean who would have thought that the most educated leader in the whole world (and I mean the whole wide world), will take ‘orders’ from a bunch of gavars (illiterates) that too while keeping a smiling face.

The circus that we call Indian politics never stops to amaze even the most seasoned experts in this field. It is okay for politicians to watch porno in the assembly house while the government is in session, but the TV channels are not allowed to air a blockbuster movie The Dirty Picture (‘Oh la la oh la la’…Vidya) because it is ‘not appropriate’ for the Indian households. It is okay for the politicians to send their kids to Catholic schools and not elect local language to study, but the aam aadmi should communicate in local language. It is okay for a politician to kill a person in a police station and then become the minister of Jail affairs, but the aam aadmi is at the mercy of the judicial system. It is definitely okay for a politician to be involved in a billion dollar scam; in fact of late it has become a requirement to enter the exclusive club, The Indian Parliament. For them politics is not about solving problems but evasion of responsibilities. Each, so called political parties, can have its own ‘reality TV show’ and command millions of viewers. I mean it is a freaking joke. I am not saying all, but most of them fall in the above category.

And then there is this other category of politicians, more appropriately termed, leaders, who actually ‘serve’ there people. They know what their responsibilities are? They know that government’s money is not theirs to take? When they say government is Of the People, For the People, By the People they mean it. This is where our beloved Manmohan Singh belongs, "a man of uncommon decency and grace" (The Independent, 2009), a man of few words, who still drives a Maruti 800. The simplest of the human beings is stuck in the worst possible situation. If an aam aadmi gets mad just by reading or hearing about the new scandals each passing day, this man has to live through them…day after day!!

If I may, Mr. Manmohan Singh is the modern day Bhishma Pitamah. To keep the Bharat varsa intact Pitamah witnessed the Draupadi vastra haran where as Mr. Singh is witnessing the Democracy vastra haran. Alas, the only difference being, in case of Mr. Singh none of the fighting parties are Pandavas (righteous).

Hence my humble request to you, hate India’s Political system, its Parliament, its Political parties but spare a thought for the Prime Minister.