Fiscal Cliff & The Class Warfare

                We survived the Mayan ‘End of the World’ prophecy, but can we get over the ‘Fiscal Cliff’? At this moment Washington DC doesn’t sound too optimistic.

                Google ‘Fiscal Cliff’ and you will get over 826 million pages. Apparently, if Congress can't reach some sort of compromise, at the end of the year across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases will go into effect that will end the World as we know it. To fix the ever increasing debt and deficit, the President and many Democrats want higher taxes on the wealthy while the Republicans want to cut Entitlements, by which they mean Social Security and Medicare.

                I am definitely against increasing the taxes. What the Democrats and President are trying to do is create a Class Warfare. Why punish the successful people? After all the mantra of capitalism is to work hard in the confines of the law and earn according to your potential. Increasing the taxes on rich is simply going to discourage the entrepreneurs. Thanks to the loop holes and expert tax advisors,  while the top marginal tax rate on ordinary income is 35 percent, average rates that a household in the upper income bracket pays is much less. According to taxfoundation.org for 2010 top 1% paid an effective income tax rate of 23.3% - already double the national average!! Thanks to the K street lobbyists  of Democrats and President Obama, the world has started viewing this top 1% as the villains’ of our economic plights. On the contrary they are the ones who manage the economic and human capital much better than the government, keeping pace with the changing times and circumstances. Most, if not all have earned their way through hard work and perseverance.

                It’s the government and not capitalism that is driving the income inequality. By increasing the un-employment insurance it’s discouraging the unemployed to actively look for employment or to train for new skills. Let’s face it, the current unemployment is not seasonal, it’s structural. Most of the unemployed need to learn new skills to get back into the job market. What is government doing to train them? Not much. Instead of increasing their unemployment insurance for 2 years, they are better off being trained for a year and update their skill set. Teach them to fish rather than feeding them.

                The rhetoric about income inequality by the President Barack Obama and the Democratic members of the Congress has been nothing more than class warfare. What is it about the top 1% that the government and President believe is wrong? It is time for the government to provide an economic environment conducive for all income groups, including the top 1% and bottom 1%, by not picking winners and losers. If President is really concerned about the bottom 1% or 25%, instead of focusing all his political energy into Obama care, he should have invested those efforts into updating the decades old tax system. Introduce the Flat Rate Tax that will cure all the ills of class discrimination.

                Mr. President, Government is and never will be the answer to the economic plights in a capitalistic society. In today's divided political sphere, a lot more constructive debates are needed. Let us keep up the fight for liberty, America!

(Life) Rape in a Metro

Four days ago, a 23-year-old paramedic student was gang-raped. She and her male friend had gone to watch ‘The Life of Pi’ at a well-known cinema in an affluent part of the city. Then, they decided to take the bus ride home. Instead of waiting for a public bus, they boarded a private chartered bus. Over the next hour, six men raped the woman, beat her friend and then left them on the side of a freeway.

This horrific incident happened in the commercial hub of the capital city of the self-proclaimed next economic super power- New Delhi… and they say that Bihar is a lawless land.

I wanted to know more about that 23 year old paramedic student. But once I read the following statement by his doctor, I couldn’t gather the courage to read any further:

"It appears to be that a rod was inserted into her and it was pulled out with so much force that the act brought out her intestines along. That is probably the only thing that explains such severe damage to her intestines," he said.

She was abused so horrifically that her intestines had to be removed. If she survives, she will spend the rest of her life being fed intravenously. As far as those six culprits were concerned, after the incident they went back to their normal lives, as if nothing had happened. They didn’t even bother to hide. They had so much confidence in our police and judiciary that they knew nothing would happen. Interestingly they weren’t the spoiled brats of any politician or rich businessmen, no. All six, who committed this heinous crime, were lower middle class people. My point is- we were used to live in a society were rich and powerful were always above the law, but now even a regular sabziwala(vegetable vendor) & a bus driver, thinks that he can get away with the crime. Is this the society we are building for our children’s? Is this the future of a prosperous India?

                The men who think from between their legs and commit violent crimes should be punished severely. Capital punishment, although extreme, will be an easy escape for these culprits. An example has to be made out of them. But I know that nothing is going to change the rigid, out dated, bureaucratic Indian judiciary. Of course these individuals will be put behind bars, but should that be the end of this horrific incident? How many more victims does a nation need to take initiatives to start building a safer, better society for our women?

                The Mayan prophecy of the ‘End of the World’ did came true for that 23 year old paramedic student, for the world that she had known before boarding that bus on that fateful night is shattered and destroyed.

Annual Shopping Pilgrimage

 

What was that? US Fiscal cliff, out of control National debt…what the heck, worries about the economy and fiscal austerity be damned. On Black Friday, consumers were ready to shop till they dropped…literally.

Hindus have Diwali, Christians have Christmas, Muslims have Ramadan, Jews have Chanukah and American Shoppers have Black Friday…the day after the Thanksgiving Thursday- a holiday when shoppers give thanks for bargain prices. It is the busiest shopping day of the year for the US retailers. (For my curious readers: Black in Black Friday indicates the point at which retailers begin to turn a profit or are ‘in the black’)

Just as a religious person will visit their holy land, the modern day consumer will make their annual pilgrimage to their sprawling and glittering neighborhood malls. Their annual pilgrimage begins soon after their Thanksgiving meals. They will very passionately and eagerly wait outside their temples of consumerism, which have different names- Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, Toys’ R Us just to name a few. They all serve the same purpose, to satisfy the hunger of a value hungry consumer.

                The parking lots become the most expensive real estate in the area. Cart & Cashiers, both of them are in abundance on any other day, but today they both are as scarce as plutonium. The temples of capitalism have taken full advantage of the consumer psyche. They provide what the consumer is looking for- ‘a deal’. Each and every soul who is waiting outside the mall in a freezing temperature is hoping to get his or her hand on a ‘once in a century deal’. Be it a 50 inch flat screen LED TV or an I-Phone/pod/pad or a Martha Stewart signature Bed in a bag or Paula Deen’s cooking set. The stores are full of hyper active consumers whose vision for that day is 20/20. There curious eyes always looking for the tags with the highest percentage off and also staring at their co-shoppers cart to figure out if they have missed anything. Cashiers, with no disrespect, are usually at the mercy of the consumers as consumers are always right. But today, is the day when the only people who are correct, are the cashiers. They can and will dictate the price, depending on the scanner of course. They are treated with the utmost respect, as they are the ones who will be approving the consumer’s catch(es) of the day. The priciest catch for today will be the empty shopping carts. No one will care if the wheels are squeaking or wobbly. The shoppers use the carts like knives to cut through the swarm of endless checkout lines and almost empty aisles.

                Having made almost six annual pilgrimages to the mecca of modern consumerism- the shopping malls, on the auspicious day of the Black Friday, one thing I have realized, at the end of the day it’s not about how much you saved, but how did you saved!!

Happy Thanksgiving and a Prosperous Black Friday.

21st century, the American century

 

One good thing that came out of Hurricane Sandy was I got some more time to think about some more things!!

                The reason I believe that the United States of America will survive the Great Recession is because I truly believe that America is a great country. I have always believed in the ‘America story’. But then why, precisely, is America so great?  And why will it still be a dominating force in the world?

                Freedom of speech, land of Opportunities, the Constitution and Equality are some of the popular answers to this question and I totally agree. But I wanted to be more real and precise. Hence, I came up with the following reasons:

·         Economically speaking, no country is as big as the United States of America. The second largest economy, China is a third of the size of the US economy. And given the current economic situation, the first spot on the economic ranking won’t change for quite some time.

·         I think more than the economic strength, it’s the military hegemony that will keep the U.S. as the most dominating force in the world. US spend almost $700B every year on defense and that total is more than the total spends of next 20 countries combine. Also, the largest and the most advanced defense companies are American.

·         Another major aspect which is often overlooked is its favorable geographic position. The huge arable land, best maritime transport system, oceans on east and west ends and politically and economically friendly countries on the north and south of the border.

·         US have a secret weapon to remain the most powerful country in the world; Code name- H1B. The H1B visas allow foreign workers in specialty occupations to work in the United States. The success of Silicon Valley is the prime example.

·         No country is as large and developed to even come close to challenge the US supremacy, both economically and militarily.

o   As long as Europe doesn’t speak one language it will never be a threat to American dominance. Plain and simple.  

o   China, I think will grow old before it becomes rich or gains military dominance. Thanks to its ‘one child’ policy and its ‘one party’ political system. One more thing to note here is that all of the prosperity of China is built on the willingness of the Americans and Europeans to buy its products.

                Time publisher, Henry Luce famously said, “20^th century, the American century”. I whole heartedly believe, “21^st century will be another American century”.

Let There Be Light...

This is it. The end of the world. The prophecy of Nostradamus has come true. The Armageddon has begun. The JJ Abrams show, “Revolution” (on NBC) has become a reality. The Mayan prediction of the end of the world has moved forward from December 21^st, 2012 to October 29^th.

The dark clouds have covered the sky. Winds have started to gain the momentum and are almost reaching the hurricane speed. Trees that withstood the test of Hurricane Irene have had enough and the roots have started to lose their strengths. The power lines are swinging like pendulum. The roads are getting deserted by each passing minute. The homes have lost power and more importantly we can’t watch TV. Well, we do have fully charged laptops, ipad’s and iPhone’s (well, who am I kidding, I am probably one of the few thousand who are still affiliated to the once prosperous, Scandinavian brand, Nokia) to survive for couple of hours, although without wi-fi and more importantly without Facebook, it’s going to be tough.

It’s been almost 2 hours, well so I thought. Habit prone, I looked at the cable box for time, alas, it was blacked out. I looked at my phone and it was only 15 minutes since we lost power. Life indeed comes to a standstill without power, both literally & figuratively. Literally being me and figuratively being Mr. Prime minister.

It’s been 2 hours for real now and I can’t take it anymore. I took Nyquil and passed out. The next morning was still dark. The leaves were off the branches. The black clouds were still overhead. The world was still quite and yes, the cable box was still not showing the time. I had it enough. I was almost on the verge of a nervous breakdown. To add salt to the wound, the overly advertised T-Mobile service was over and out. For some reason all my commercial brand affiliations are not so popular in the market today. Be it Nokia, T-mobile, HP, Long John Silver, Papa John’s or Adidas.

                I went to a friend’s place, which not-so-surprisingly was also without any power. Fortunately one of his outlets was working. So using our always alert, overly-leveraged, Desi(Indian)-minds, we plugged in the surge-protector and fed in all our battery-hungry e-devices. The GE 15 Watt (65W equivalent) Energy Smart Floodlight Dimmable R30 Light Bulb, never looked so bright and beautiful. We were all immersing in the golden light of the GE bulb that was lighting the one room that had power.

                And then I saw a glimmer of hope, literally. I saw one of the bedrooms light up, as if someone has said, “Let there be lights”. We all sprang up with joy- Yelling, praying, hugging, high-fiving, going berserk with joy. And as if the God of light, Apollo would have smiled, the blacked out cable box lite up again with the bright blue lights. More importantly it started showing the time again.

                Sorry Mayans, for now we have skipped the Armageddon. And our beautiful lives are back to normal, again.

The Master of Moments

“I will always make films on human relations, because it touches all walks of life and no two relationships are same”, so said the master, the storyteller, the filmmaker, the legend - Mr. Yash Chopra. The masterful storyteller, who made gems like SilSila, Chandni, Lamhe & DDLJ to name a few; The man who epitomized varied versions of human relations on the celluloid, made the viewer’s fall in love, all over again. 

He made human relations & situations a protagonist in his movies. Take the innocent love story of Kuwar Virendra Pratap Singh aka Kuwarji and Puja or the ever green love triangle between Amit, Shobha & Chandani. He was so good at reflecting the depth of human emotions on the silver screen, that his kind of cinema came to be known as Yash Chopra genre; a style to which each and every cine-goers will identify to.

For many of us who belong to either the Vijay generation or the Munna generation or the Rahul generation, Yash Raj films were binding us all. In the times of Dev D’s and Rathore’s and the new age Don’s, his was the genre that cut through the age, race, caste, creed, political and economic barrier. He was the one who brought back emotions or should I say, a little Indianess back to the Indian cinema.

The Yash Chopra story won’t be based on his life, but on his movies for that was his life…Jab Tak Hai Jaa!!

The Man, The Moments, The Movies—Yash Chopra.

All Is Well...

Down But Not Out

After a long hiatus, I am back…

So, Is America doomed?

Are the world renowned financiers, economists, journalists, historians correctly predicting the end of the Superpower that has shouldered the world’s economy since the beginning of the last century?  Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Nouriel Roubini and countless other famed commentators (including my friends & colleagues), are they placing the right bet by shorting on the US economic future?

I for one don’t think so. US economy is hurt and a little down, but definitely not out. Let’s take it point by point:

Federal Spending

I definitely share their concern with regards to the debt burden and its unsustainability. But given the situation that we are in, I think this is the ‘only’ way out. I am not asking the federal government to expand the social welfare programs, NO. I only ask for investments in two sectors. I am hoping that the federal government’s spending goes towards infrastructure, which is much needed and with that you will have jobs for the people. Follow the lead of the most successful developed nation, Germany and invest in the workers training programs. Make them more efficient and educated so that they can face the ever changing world of technology. US can’t fight against the low cost labor, but they can always become more productive.

Austerity measures

I had said this in one of my blog’s last year. It’s about math. Consumer, Business & Government makes up the national GDP (for now don’t focus on EX-IM).  We are very well aware that Consumers and Businesses are going through a rough patch since last four years and it seems that the status quo will remain for couple more years. So, now if you ‘still’ want to grow, who do you think will have to take the lead? Right, the Government. Of course financing the future with Debt is not a prudent move, but as long as the world trust’s the all might dollar and falls heads over heals to buy the Treasuries, you do not need to worry. US have about $15 Trillion of debt (almost as much as GDP) and still the yields on Treasuries are at a historic low. Why? Because US is the best place in the worst neighborhood. UK had taken strict austerity measures couple of years back and look where it is now. It’s still teetering at 0 to 0.5% growth, add to it the increasing unemployment and a whole lot of other domestic issues.

China syndrome

Enough with the China scares. China needs us more than the other way round. China needs to keep Yuan undervalued, to keep the manufacturing sector running which in turn keeps the domestic population employed. 20 million Chinese move to the cities every year. They need to be employed. China’s economy unlike US is not based on consumers, but on exports to the ‘rich’ countries like US, EU & Japan. If they don’t keep their currencies undervalued, the trade favorability will increase the value of Yuan, which won’t be good for the manufacturing sector, which will lead to job cuts, which will lead to innumerable social and domestic issues for the Communist party.

The world might not like US government printing more Dollars, but they don’t have any other alternative. And this is what US should take the advantage of. Issue debt but make sure it’s ‘invested’ for the future.