Be Careful What You Wish For

             Happy weekend, friends.

So the past week witnessed two main events, North Korea’s failed rocket launch and the worsening situation in Syria. The two authoritative states have failed economically, Syria to a lesser extent. There population is worse off compare to their counterparts, more so for North Korea. Influential nations are pressing for democracy to be established in these states for years. But recent events like the Arab spring and death of Kim Jong Il has brought the issue of democracy to the forefront. Only if these nations would have oil reserve, influential powers would have intervened long time ago.

As protesters threaten the Syrian dictatorship, no one knows when and whether the regime of Bashar al-Assad will fall, not even the ‘experts’ at the UN. At the outset, as Assad’s security forces gunned down democratic protesters, the Obama administration and its European allies reacted hesitantly.  Now, pressure is mounting against the regime and the protestors have proven to be a durable and resilient force. But the current regime is defending its stand very arrogantly. UN led a mission helmed by much respected Kofi Anna, but nothing came out of the meet, except for the future meetings!!

Not surprisingly, Russia and China recently vetoed an attempt by the Arab League to secure United Nations Security Council backing of its action plan for a political transition in Syria. Russia has clear interests in Syria. It has long given military and diplomatic support to the Syrian government. It supplies Syria with its tanks, guns and other military accessories. If the Assad regime fell Russia would lose much of its influence in the Middle East. China usually remains neutral, but given US influence in the Mideast oil, it wanted to take a stand. Or maybe China has some genuine issues. It might be worried that some radical Islamic groups are backing the uprising in Syria and that radical ideologies could end up spreading down the old Silk Road to China’s own Muslim populations in Xinjiang. Farfetched but could be true. I totally understand the ‘passive’ American approach in the Syria issue. This is an election year after all and I am sure Obama administration doesn’t want to be blamed for another American war against the Muslim state, especially when the US economy is still fragile.

The verdict of the ‘Arab Spring’ is still open. True that democracy or should I say pseudo democracy has been established in Tunisia, Egypt & to a very very lesser extent in Libya. But improving your ‘Political Lives’ (voting power) and making your ‘Economic Lives’ better are two different things. I just hope that the leadership vacuum created by throwing the dictator may not result in a ‘democratically elected fanatic Islamic power’, which could become a ‘genuine’ democratically elected government.

What will the ‘Oil Craving’, ‘Democracy Loving’, ‘Economically Powerful’ and ‘Politically Influential’ nations do then?