Whats Up, Europe?

It seems that European Union’s list of trouble just got a little longer…

First it was the socialist leader of France, Francois Hollande’s who won the Presidential elections by slamming EU’s austerity fix for the debt crisis. The freshly-elected president said his victory marked “a new departure for Europe and hope for the world” because it showed “austerity can no longer be the only option.”

As France’s unemployment hits its highest level since the inception of the 5^th republic, Hollande has called to rewrite a recently inked and long-negotiated EU fiscal pact to enforce budgetary discipline. This is causing jitters on both the global financial markets and on EU chancellor, I mean…German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

And then it was the usual suspect, Greece in the troubled waters…again

Only weeks out of the woods (thanks to the troika of IMF, EU & ECB) after forcing creditors to take a massive hit on their bond holdings, the political turmoil in Athens threatens to sink its latest bailout and drive the insolvent country closer to a messy debt default and possibly an exit from the euro zone. As talks to form the next Greek government fails, there are doubts that Athens might not follow up on its promised austerity measures worth E 14.5B next month. An analyst on Bloomberg came up with a suggestion to fix the Greek crisis. She said Germany should provide each of its citizens with a Greece club-med vacation voucher, so that they can go to Greece and spend quality time & money to boost up the Greek economy. On the other hand, EMU should provide Greek citizen’s voucher to visit Germany to witness how Germans pay their taxes!!

The Pain in Spain is growing day by day. On Monday, it was official, Spain was in recession and to add salt to the wound, S&P downgraded all of Spain’s largest banks. The austerity measures that the government plan to take is not going to help the 25% unemployed Spaniards. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has said that come Friday, his government will come out with a reform package that will solve lot of Spain’s economic woes. Amen to that, because if markets are concerned about Greece (2011 GDP $300B), Spain’s economy ($1.4T) is 5 times larger!

And if Spain fails then Mario Monti’s Italy is going to be the next Domino to fall…   

Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas - Gujarat

So recently I came across an article by the noted economic blogger Soutik Biswas on Gujarat.

He stated that based on the 7 year period from 2004-05 thru 2011-12 Gujarat clocked an annual growth rate of 10.08 %( Gross State Domestic Product). If Gujarat were a country this would be one of the fastest growth rate in the world, undoubtedly faster than China but even faster than the new frontier nations like, Mongolia and Ghana. This even prompted The Economist magazine to call it India's Guangdong.

Hailing from the great state of Gujarat, I didn’t need any statistics to prove the growth of Gujarat, but numbers like this does help to prove your argument, if there were any. A lot has been said about the real reasons of the phenomenal growth of Gujarat. It’s entrepreneurial community, its educated population; its conservative values (believe it or not!), its ties to the successful business families. But the most important thing that helped Gujarat achieve this success is because of its government’s socio-economic policies that are both, business and aam aadmi friendly. Its clear vision, its acceptance to become a part of a much bigger & a better world, its philosophy of better economic life translates into a better social life, has earned the state a lot of kudos both nationally and internationally. And this is all because of one person, the person who hopefully, will be our next Prime Minister*, Mr. Narendra Modi- the no-nonsense economic reformer. This is no political propaganda and I have no allegiance to any political party. I believe in Mahatma Gandhi’s philosophy of electing the ‘person’ and not the ‘party’. And being a witness to the longest and the strongest socio-economic growth an Indian state would have ever witnessed, I wanted to write about it and the reason behind it. Even Time magazine put him on the cover recently, "Modi Means Business".

Some might question his policies during the troubled times of 2002 when Gujarat went through its worst social crisis, but his economic policies never left a shred of doubt. His vision of making Gujarat a model state was very clear. I don’t need to provide the list of things that Gujarat has achieved in its recent past, I am sure we all have witnessed it either personally or through media.

2002 has been a distant past. Gujarat has achieved a lot in this past decade in both economic front and social front. Socio-economic & educational level of Gujarati’s in both Muslims and Hindus are better than their counterparts in the rest of India. Not that everything is hunky dory, like any other state Gujarat has its issues with female foeticide and environment, but steps are being taken and it is moving in the right direction.

Jai Jai Garvi Gujarat!!

*I can’t wait to see how will the sitting US President entice Prime Minister Modi to come to US, given he was not granted visa after 2002.

Spare a thought for Mr. Prime Minister

You know, when I face a dilemma or get a little depressed (thanks to Dow Jones Industrial) I think about my beloved Prime minister. That thought will cheer me up right away, because compare to his situation, I am relaxing in my balcony, having a black coffee on a river cruise in Germany!! I mean who would have thought that the most educated leader in the whole world (and I mean the whole wide world), will take ‘orders’ from a bunch of gavars (illiterates) that too while keeping a smiling face.

The circus that we call Indian politics never stops to amaze even the most seasoned experts in this field. It is okay for politicians to watch porno in the assembly house while the government is in session, but the TV channels are not allowed to air a blockbuster movie The Dirty Picture (‘Oh la la oh la la’…Vidya) because it is ‘not appropriate’ for the Indian households. It is okay for the politicians to send their kids to Catholic schools and not elect local language to study, but the aam aadmi should communicate in local language. It is okay for a politician to kill a person in a police station and then become the minister of Jail affairs, but the aam aadmi is at the mercy of the judicial system. It is definitely okay for a politician to be involved in a billion dollar scam; in fact of late it has become a requirement to enter the exclusive club, The Indian Parliament. For them politics is not about solving problems but evasion of responsibilities. Each, so called political parties, can have its own ‘reality TV show’ and command millions of viewers. I mean it is a freaking joke. I am not saying all, but most of them fall in the above category.

And then there is this other category of politicians, more appropriately termed, leaders, who actually ‘serve’ there people. They know what their responsibilities are? They know that government’s money is not theirs to take? When they say government is Of the People, For the People, By the People they mean it. This is where our beloved Manmohan Singh belongs, "a man of uncommon decency and grace" (The Independent, 2009), a man of few words, who still drives a Maruti 800. The simplest of the human beings is stuck in the worst possible situation. If an aam aadmi gets mad just by reading or hearing about the new scandals each passing day, this man has to live through them…day after day!!

If I may, Mr. Manmohan Singh is the modern day Bhishma Pitamah. To keep the Bharat varsa intact Pitamah witnessed the Draupadi vastra haran where as Mr. Singh is witnessing the Democracy vastra haran. Alas, the only difference being, in case of Mr. Singh none of the fighting parties are Pandavas (righteous).

Hence my humble request to you, hate India’s Political system, its Parliament, its Political parties but spare a thought for the Prime Minister.

The Last Empress

So, two noteworthy news came out of this week, Republicans finally found there Presidential nominee in Mitt Romney and Standard & Poor's on Wednesday downgraded India's credit outlook to negative but maintained India's rating at BBB-. But today I am taking a little detour from the real world issues of Economics & Current affairs to the fantasies of the Indian celluloid.  

            My all-time favorite movie is Lamhe (Moments) and the stars that starred in it.

            The ‘most versatile of Indian actors’, the ‘original Munna’, the ‘Hairy man’, the ‘only’ Main stream Hollywood Star of India, Mr. Anil Kapoor. (I know many of you might give me a sarcastic laugh!!). And the subject of my blog today, ‘The Lady Bacchan of Indian cinema’, ‘The first superstar actress’, ‘The Queen Bee’…Sridevi.

            If I trust my memory, the first Sridevi starrer I watched was Sadma. She plays a young woman suffering from amnesia & autism following an accident. That still remains the most definitive child-woman performance of Indian film history. Who could forget Nagin. The way Sridevi played nagin (snake) character in this movie is completely unmatched. No actress before or after this movie has done it so perfectly, and I sincerely doubt if anyone would be able to give such a performance in the future. How many of us still remember that chiffon sari in Har kisiko nahin milta yahan pyar zindagi mein from Jaanbaz? If Yash Chopra brought Switzerland to India in Chandni, Sridevi made a charming acting rainbow out of her white costumes. Either it was the sensational double-act in Chaalbaaz or the class of an acting in Mr. India, she has always tested the limits of her acting skills. Be it Khuda Gawah, Ladla, Gumrah, Judaai or the unforgettable Lamhe, she never fails to surprise the audience and her costars with her spontaneous and riveting acting.   

           Before the recent trend of Indian actress going to Hollywood, it was Sridevi who was approached by none other than Hollywood’s showman, Steven Spielberg for a role in Jurassic Park, which she refused because of her commitments.

            With all due respect to MinaKumari, Madhubala and Nargis, I feel that Sridevi is the only complete actress. She undoubtedly is ‘The Last Empress’ of the Indian film industry.

The (Proud) Last Benchers

My first love after Ravi Shastri’s Audi was ‘the last bench’ in my class. Although it wasn’t for my taking, since my class teacher followed the rotation policy. The policy came into being because all the parents, including mine, wanted their kids to seat on ‘the first bench’. All the parents want the best for their kids and what better than the ‘first bench’, for there was a theory making rounds in the parents circle that if the child seats on the first bench, he/ she will become one of the top rankers in the class. What else could the poor teacher do when there were over 50 students in each class and almost all of them were ‘First Rankers’ in there parents eyes. Little did the parents knew that mentally, I and most of my close friends were the lovers of the last bench…for life?

At this stage of life, I can comfortably say that I have never been a topper in my school life. I and students like me who form the majority after graduating from the school, are the famous ‘by products’ of our school system. The ‘real products’ of the school system were the true first benchers who were destined to become ‘someone’ in the world. I am sure most of us have watched Bollywood blockbuster ‘3 Idiot’s’. I just wished that movie would have come a little earlier, then we would have justified our very little interest in Science & Math’s & Social studies & Hindi & English a little easily to our parents and teachers.  

The reason I am talking about our great education system today is not because I got frustrated with life and wanted to blame someone but because I feel that the ‘last benchers’ are not given the ‘respect’ that they deserve. We, the last benchers strongly believed that you can learn more if you enjoy more. Of course the ‘enjoy’ part of the above statement easily overtook the ‘learning’ aspect. So what if we are not the ‘cream de la cream’ of academia, we were on top of all the ‘other extra-curricular activities’. Life has its own pace in the last bench…dreaming with open eyes, enjoying a snack, writing a poem (of sorts); scribing on the bench with our modern art, etc…etc.

I have utmost respect for the ‘first benchers’ for some my non-last bencher friends have become ‘someone’ in the world. As far as my ‘fellow last-bench countrymen’ are concerned, I feel that the last benchers are the intellectual ones, whose level is same as that of the intelligent first benchers but have an ‘unusual’ and ‘different’ opinion about the concepts.

Here’s to the misfits, the rebels, the crazy ones, the squares in the circle, the trouble makers; the ones who see things differently.

Be Careful What You Wish For

             Happy weekend, friends.

So the past week witnessed two main events, North Korea’s failed rocket launch and the worsening situation in Syria. The two authoritative states have failed economically, Syria to a lesser extent. There population is worse off compare to their counterparts, more so for North Korea. Influential nations are pressing for democracy to be established in these states for years. But recent events like the Arab spring and death of Kim Jong Il has brought the issue of democracy to the forefront. Only if these nations would have oil reserve, influential powers would have intervened long time ago.

As protesters threaten the Syrian dictatorship, no one knows when and whether the regime of Bashar al-Assad will fall, not even the ‘experts’ at the UN. At the outset, as Assad’s security forces gunned down democratic protesters, the Obama administration and its European allies reacted hesitantly.  Now, pressure is mounting against the regime and the protestors have proven to be a durable and resilient force. But the current regime is defending its stand very arrogantly. UN led a mission helmed by much respected Kofi Anna, but nothing came out of the meet, except for the future meetings!!

Not surprisingly, Russia and China recently vetoed an attempt by the Arab League to secure United Nations Security Council backing of its action plan for a political transition in Syria. Russia has clear interests in Syria. It has long given military and diplomatic support to the Syrian government. It supplies Syria with its tanks, guns and other military accessories. If the Assad regime fell Russia would lose much of its influence in the Middle East. China usually remains neutral, but given US influence in the Mideast oil, it wanted to take a stand. Or maybe China has some genuine issues. It might be worried that some radical Islamic groups are backing the uprising in Syria and that radical ideologies could end up spreading down the old Silk Road to China’s own Muslim populations in Xinjiang. Farfetched but could be true. I totally understand the ‘passive’ American approach in the Syria issue. This is an election year after all and I am sure Obama administration doesn’t want to be blamed for another American war against the Muslim state, especially when the US economy is still fragile.

The verdict of the ‘Arab Spring’ is still open. True that democracy or should I say pseudo democracy has been established in Tunisia, Egypt & to a very very lesser extent in Libya. But improving your ‘Political Lives’ (voting power) and making your ‘Economic Lives’ better are two different things. I just hope that the leadership vacuum created by throwing the dictator may not result in a ‘democratically elected fanatic Islamic power’, which could become a ‘genuine’ democratically elected government.

What will the ‘Oil Craving’, ‘Democracy Loving’, ‘Economically Powerful’ and ‘Politically Influential’ nations do then?

‘It’s the Politics, Stupid’

            In a true Globalized, Open, Capitalistic market, there is always a winner, no matter who the counter parties are. And that winner is NOT one of the counterparties!!

           My friends, it might be a cliché but history is indeed repeating itself.

          The year was 1979: The first Iranian oil embargo beginning in 1979 effectively handed Marc Rich, whose company ultimately became Glencore (one of the world’s largest physical oil and commodities traders), the keys to a multibillion dollar oil-trading kingdom.

          The year is 2011: EU placed an embargo on Iranian oil. Now, it was China’s turn. China’s growing global oil trading companies are in the driver’s seat. And unlike Marc Rich’s secret trades, Chinese firms can do it openly. Since, they are confident that Beijing values stable and secure oil supplies much more than cooperation with Washington or Brussels, on the Iranian nuclear issue.

         The EU sanctions, which will affect about 450,000 barrels per day of oil imports to Europe, will likely transfer billions of dollars in oil earnings from the Iranian government to China’s main oil trading firms: Zhuhai Zhenrong, Unipec, Chinaoil, and Sinochem. These firms have become major players in the global physical crude oil market.

        The crude oil prices have never adhered to the economic principals. The current $100+ barrel (Nymex) is not the result of increasing demand or decreasing supply. If you think the 2007 US mortgage market was a mess, you won’t believe what goes on in the oil trades. As of today global oil consumption is around 85 million barrel PER DAY and the oil futures markets routinely trade more than ONE BILLION (with a ‘B’) barrels of oil PER DAY. There is a reason why the largest trader of oil in the world is not an Oil company, but a trading and a financial services company.

        Hence, it’s proven again, the basic economics mantra of ‘Demand and Supply’ doesn’t imply to the Crude Oil market. In case of global oil trade ‘It’s the Economics Politics, Stupid’.