Viki ‘The 5K’ Shah

Yea, I did it…I did it…

Yesterday I ran the 5K (3.1 mile) race and completed!!

Wide varieties of thought came across my mind in those 46:20 minutes. Following is the snapshot of my conversation with my ‘inner’ self.

At the Starting Line: “Viki you can do it…run, wait...should I walk for a mile and then start running? No, it’s a run…not walk…I should run”

After 5 minutes: “I must be close to the 1 mile mark. Crap, 4 guys past me…2 more.  Score:-6”

After 12-13 minutes: “Wait, Did that fat ‘Verizon’ dude just passed me!! This can’t be happening. What was the score, +1…-1”

After 15 minutes: “Yeeea finally passed the official 1 mile marker. Almost home…what the heck, how can this be possible; these guys on the other side are going back!! U turn must be near”

After 20 minutes: “Hmmm the road is down hill from here, I should start running…but then its down hill so I can walk faster and not run. Where is that U turn?”

After 25 minutes: “Oh my God, the lady with the twins stroller just passed me…this is bad. Is that -1 or -3? Hey you ‘athletically superior’ guy…don’t go that fast dude, show some respect”

After 27 minutes: “They must have not kept the 2 mile marker…Two mile’s cannot be this apart!!”

After 31 minutes: “Finally, 2 mile marker. 2 down, 1 more to go…Hmmm just like Tom Hanks in Forest Gump, he ran across America, I am running across Morristown…great”

After 35 minutes: “Oh boy, this is tough. Can’t even quit, my car is parked near the finishing line. I think this alley must be the shortcut to the main street, but everyone is watching…even the cops are near by!!”

After 40 minutes: “Oh no, 4 old women passed me by…viki, run…ehh, how long will they run, they can’t run all the way”

After 43 minutes: “Yes, I see the finishing line. Should I run? No, I have to do the Weekly reporting tomorrow can’t risk spraining my ankle. On the other hand I should at least run from here and ‘make an entry’ to the finish line...but then again my goal is to complete, not compete”

After 45 minutes: “No matter what I have to beat that BD guy…and that Verizon gal…and that girl in green jersey…and that ‘walking show-room of the running gear’ guy…and definitely that kid…run viki run”

After crossing the finishing line: “In your face, BD guy…Yes…finally…46:20…not bad…not bad at all. Time to go home. Wait a minute I need to pick up my medal”

                                                    “Way to go”

One more argument for the Open Markets

            Considering me and my generation Indian’s have witnessed both the worlds…from the monopolistic surroundings of Doordarshan, Ambassador, Indian Oil, Bajaj Chetak and the national telecom company to the vibrant world of 24 hour news & entertainment channels, cars of all sizes from almost all the major international automobile companies, fuel from wide array of private industries, bikes ranging from Japanese to German manufacturer and cellular phone connections from over a dozen companies. I was always wondering how would have India performed if the famous liberalization of 1992 would have taken place earlier? How would Indians have benefited from the market economy? More importantly I wanted to throw some light on the inflationary issue related to the closed economy.

            On December 14, 1983, for Rs.48,000, Mr. Harpal Singh of Green Park, New Delhi became the first owner of Maruti 800. The keys were handed over to him by none other than, the former Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi. In 1983 the waiting list on getting a landline telephone connection was 3-5 years and was priced at a fortune. During that time a liter of milk was selling for Rs.2, the cost of onions was Rs.0.50 per kilogram and wheat was retailed for Rs.3 per kg.

            Fast forward 2011: Maruti 800 is phased out but its modern version, Alto is priced at Rs.219,000. Just one of over 10 brands available in this segment. People can get a mobile phone connection in an hour at about 1 paisa (cent) a minute rate. Milk is selling for Rs40/lit, Onion for Rs25/kg & Wheat for Rs13/kg.

            In terms of inflation (compounded): Maruti 800 saw a yearly price increase of 5.5% from 1983 thru 2011 (28 years). As far as telecom is concerned, I am sure I don’t have to give any numbers as everyone knows that phones are cheaper & better. On the other hand price of Milk grew at an astounding rate of 11.5%, Onion at 15% and wheat at 14% annually. To put things in perspective, India’s average inflation, WPI (that’s wholesale Price Index and not Consumer Price Index, mind you) was around 7.6% in 1980’s, 6.3% in 90’s and 8.8% in 2000’s. (RBI)

            Increase in competition, in most cases, will bring in control the rising inflation. Not that it is the ‘only’ solution, but it will be a positive step for the economy in the long run by making producers more productive. My point is, the worrisome trend that we see in the prices of consumer essential items is mainly because agricultural sector is not productive enough and it is being shielded by the government subsidies. True, a rural farmer needs some government assistance, but on the other hand given the opportunity that farmer will love to see his field, flush green with the use of modern technologies. I am all in the favor of a ‘partial’ opening of the retail markets in India. This hopefully, will bring modern technologies to the farmers in India’s rural areas, where indeed they are working hard but without the help of technology, they are not getting enough returns and hence committing suicide because of pressure from rogue lenders with political connections. 

            The partial opening of the retail market will take off some inflationary pressure for the Indian consumers, will help boost the spending in the economy and more importantly will help our hard working Kisan’s (farmers) to feed there families and live a respectable life.

The never ending saga of Debt, Deficit & Default

            …and the drama continues. Now the date to watch for is August 2^nd. That’s when $14.3 trillion debt limit of US government is going to be breached.

            Debt ceiling is a cap set by Congress on the amount of debt the federal government can legally borrow. The cap applies to debt owed to the public (i.e., anyone who buys U.S. bonds) plus debt owed to federal government trust funds such as those for Social Security and Medicare. The first limit was set in 1917 for $11.5 billion.

            Considering how serious the debt ceiling issue is and getting worse each passing day, President Obama sent out invitations to the leaders of both parties for last week’s meet. Invitation said: “a unique opportunity to do something big about the budget deficit.”

            Nice words…Unique! Big! But the thing is Congress has raised the debt limit 10 times in the last 10 years – from $5.95 trillion in 2000 at the end of the Clinton presidency to the present level of $14.29 trillion, so I don’t think there is anything unique or big about it. Time is in the favor of the US political leaders because considering all the uncertainties with the debt ceiling, US debt is still selling at below 3% for 10 years. I still believe that the common sense will prevail on Capitol Hill and the dooms day scenario of 'US default' is not going to materialize.

            Two senior research fellows of George Mason University’s Mercatus center, Veronique de Rugy and Jason Fitchner, came up with the steps that Treasury could take to meet its financial obligations and prevent a technical default until the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, and possibly longer:

• Based on Congressional Budget Office estimates, tax revenue of $2.2 trillion in fiscal 2011 Technical default can be easily averted by paying off the $214 billion of interest on the debt. Tax revenue is also enough to cover Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid outlays as well.
• Treasury secretary can repeat his ‘extraordinary actions’ of suspending investment in government pension funds and the Social Security Trust Fund, something that he is doing since the public debt hit the statutory limit in May.
• Treasury can also use cash on hand or sell assets, such as gold, foreign currency or assets acquired under the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Agreed, such sales won’t yield enough to cover all the bills, but the payments can be prioritized.

            So, to all the respected Congressmen-women & the President, the opportunity might not be ‘unique’ or ‘big’ but it doesn’t mean that its not important for it directly deals with the lives of an average American.

Reference:  
 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-07/debt-limit-shuffle-buys-time-for-something-big-caroline-baum.html#0_undefined,0_

A 'Politicians' Crusade against Corruption

So, this past Saturday I had an opportunity to meet the president of Janta Party and a visiting Harvard economics professor, Mr. Subramaiam Swamy (thanks to my friend, Nishil). Lately he is been in the news not for the economics or more surprisingly, for political reasons, but for his crusade against the corruption. He is the one who initiated the inquiry into the now famous 2G scam.

He spoke in great dept about how he came across the fudged allocation process for issuing the licenses for the 2G spectrum. Considering the gathering was not large, he didn’t hold any bars in making sarcastic remarks against the ‘lady from Italy’, the ‘powerless Prime Minister’ and the ‘pathetic prince’. His views on the Krunanidhi clan were also not great and rightly so. For all the scams and misappropriations the clan has undertaken since being in power are just ridiculous. But it was his supportive remarks for ‘the fat lady from Chennai’, Ms. Jailalitha, that I started thinking that it is not the public servant, but the politician, Mr. Swami who has started this crusade against corruption.

            Don’t get me wrong, what he is doing is indeed great for the nation as a whole, but then just like all the other things in India, his crusade is also politically motivated. Just so I don’t ‘misunderstand’ his mission, I asked him why did he choose 2G scam and not any other, as there is no dearth of corruption scandals in India. His reply was this scandal had a National security angle to it, which was quite understandable. But just like all the other politicians he ended up making a speculation. “Make me the head of the CBI and I will undertake all the corruption cases”.

            It was indeed a pleasure to meet him. Needless to say he has a vast amount of knowledge and is a great communicator. There is no doubt in my mind that he is a great leader and an intellectual person, but his political ambitions trump his prior two qualities. 

Breaking News: Before ending his speech, Mr Swami, predicted that come August, ‘one very highly placed minister’ in the current UPA government will be the guest of honor at Delhi’s most happening place, the Tihar jail.

Voting: A Luxurious Right or A Civic Duty?

Happy 235th Independence Day, America!!

Just like most of my countrymen, I spent 4^th of July vacationing with friends and families. Didn’t do anything that remotely was related to the birthday celebration of this great nation (didn’t even saw the fireworks). What do I say about this great nation; it gives you ‘Freedom’- freedom to ‘think’, freedom to ‘act’, freedom to ‘live’. It doesn’t confine you to act in a certain manner, given it is within the law!

Some good news for Indians, recently concluded census study shows that India’s literacy rate has reached a whopping 75%. It’s indeed an achievement for a nation, who had an educated population of only 12% during the time of independence in 1947.

Over the weekend, a very close confidant of mine gave me an eye-opening statistic. He said that in a multi-party, vibrant democracy like India, a party only needs to focus on 15-20% of the population(on religious or socio-economic grounds) to win the leadership of the whole country. He said that since ‘only’ 50-55% of the voting population exercises their right and given the rise of the regional parties, any party getting 30-35% of the voting population will get the necessary seats in the parliament to run the country.

Shouldn’t a vibrant, transparent, functional democracy have full involvement of its citizens? Why does almost half of the population don’t think that it is necessary to exercise there right. It is one of the biggest threat to the democratic system of a nation. This epidemic is spreading world over and is not limited to India. Last three general elections in US have seen an average turnout of 60%. Europeans, historically have been very involved in there election process but lately there turnout has also been dwindling down.  

So then the question arises, why do people living in a democratic nation don’t exercise there most important right?

I guess may be that is where the difference lies, most of us treat voting as a ‘right’ and not a ‘duty’.  

Let the Race Begin...

So yesterday we saw an incumbent President turn into a Presidential candidate. It was not the President but the Democratic Presidential candidate Barak Obama, who signed the release of 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Although oil did fell 6% on the day of the announcement, based on the rate of US oil consumption, the release will be consumed in just one day. Even more important thing to notice is, according to American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline prices were declining since last 20 days in US, so why the sudden need of releasing oil from the reserve?

White house is saying that the release is intended to be a preemptive move for the upcoming summer driving season, when demand for oil is expected to increase. But oil strategists and even the White House know that any price reduction in oil market because of the release will be temporary. I still have my doubts with the timing of the decision. I know it seems very obvious to be a smart political move but then sometimes in politics candidates have to be, plain blunt.

SPR was created in 1975 after the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo. It can hold up to 725 million barrels, which can fulfill little over a month’s US domestic demand. SPR was created primarily to counter severe supply interruption and its use should be limited to emergency situations. Releasing strategic reserve based on NYMEX & ICE spot crude oil prices doesn’t set a good precedence. Most of the so-called independent federal agencies (NBLR, SEC) lately, have been influenced politically; I suppose SPR is going in the same direction.  

Arab Spring: Is it?

Since the self immolation of an unemployed Tunisian in December 2010, to protest his ill-treatment by the police, people in the Arab world have started pro-democratic demonstrations. The world media, as usual, have cnnized the whole process and gave this movement a name- ‘The Arab Spring’. The term is adopted from ‘The Prague Spring’, the eight month liberalization rebellion in former Czechoslovakia in August of 1968.

We entered the seventh month of the so-called spring this past 17^th. So far this rebellion has achieved its goal of overthrowing the dictatorial governments in Tunisia, Egypt & more recently, Yemen. Protests in Bahrain, Oman & Jordan were crushed and I think spring is over for the people of these nations. Demonstrators are on streets against there respective authoritarian rulers in Syria, Algeria & Morocco. There are protests in almost all of the Middle East and North African countries, but there activities are over shadowed by the high profile rebellion activities going on in Libya. Libya’s rebels have been recognized by Germany & Canada as the legitimate government of Libya, although Tripoli is still controlled by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Why NATO and particularly, US decided to get involved in Libya and no other country, is still a mystery.

The protests in Tunisia and Egypt, as far as bringing democracy is concerned, were a success (although I am still debating if success is the right word to use at this junction). But it is just the first step in the right direction. Democracy is not ‘The Answer’ to all the questions a nation faces. True, it helps to be a democratic society but remember, ‘with power comes responsibility’. Tunisians and Egyptians have the power and now, God forbid; if they fail they can’t blame anyone. The recent Christian & Muslim riots in Egypt were just the thing I am worried about. These nations have no experience in running a government on democratic values and one misstep will tarnish all the good that was done by removing the dictators.

Middle East and North Africa have for long been viewed from a prism of radical Islamism, but status quo is changing. It’s a brave new world in the Middle East. Although I sincerely hope that the young Arabs understand that overthrowing the current regime is just one step and the work of nation building will be there true test. The Prague Spring was crushed by Soviet tanks; I wish the ending is different this time around.